SBI consensus expectations for Q1FY20E:

  • NII – Rs22,476cr, up by 3.1% yoy and decline by 2.1% qoq, due to better credit growth largely aided by retail segments and stable NIMs.
  • PPOP – Rs14,990cr, up by 25.2% yoy and decline by 11.5% qoq, due to higher NII and other income
  • PAT – Rs4,554cr, due to higher PPOP and decline in provisions.

Remarks:

  • We expect loan growth at ~12% yoy and NIM unchanged qoq at ~2.9%, which will drive NII.
  • Margins to improve slightly on higher MCLR and recovery efforts.
  • Slippage will mainly come from the watch list.
  • Lower slippages and strong recovery to improve NPAs.
  • Non-interest income growth will be higher due to higher treasury income and income from written-off loans.
  • We expect slippages at 1.6% of loans.
  • RoE recovery would be the key monitorable.

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