SBI consensus expectations for Q1FY20E:
- NII – Rs22,476cr, up by 3.1% yoy and decline by 2.1% qoq, due to better credit growth largely aided by retail segments and stable NIMs.
- PPOP – Rs14,990cr, up by 25.2% yoy and decline by 11.5% qoq, due to higher NII and other income
- PAT – Rs4,554cr, due to higher PPOP and decline in provisions.
- We expect loan growth at ~12% yoy and NIM unchanged qoq at ~2.9%, which will drive NII.
- Margins to improve slightly on higher MCLR and recovery efforts.
- Slippage will mainly come from the watch list.
- Lower slippages and strong recovery to improve NPAs.
- Non-interest income growth will be higher due to higher treasury income and income from written-off loans.
- We expect slippages at 1.6% of loans.
- RoE recovery would be the key monitorable.